IndiaversusEngland

2 Jun 2026 · T20

The County Ground, Taunton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 6 wickets

India20.0 overs180/5 England18.3 overs184/4 The County Ground, Taunton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

38%India62%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,673 vs 1,625 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 35%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

India's chances ranged from 0% to 88% during the match (England: 12% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: LCN Smith to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. England up from 52% to 63%.
2nd inns 1.6: K Goud to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. India up from 63% to 74%.
2nd inns 2.6: A Reddy to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. India up from 69% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India180/5 England184/4

Innings 1

India

180/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanalbw · Charlie Dean 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Charlie Dean	8	9	1	0	88.89
Shafali Vermacaught · Charlie Dean · Linsey Smith 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Charlie Dean · b Linsey Smith	11	6	2	0	183.33
Yastika Bhatiarun out · Sophie Ecclestone · Danielle Gibson 7 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Sophie Ecclestone	32	18	7	0	177.78
Jemimah Rodriguesbowled · Lauren Bell 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Lauren Bell	29	19	4

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lauren Bell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	2	9.00	3
Linsey Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	1
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	1
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	0
Danielle Gibson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	9	19/1
3	12	31/1
4	6	37/2
5	8	45/2
6	12	57/2
7	6	63/3
8	8	71/3
9	11	82/3
10	12	94/3
11	7	101/4
12	7	108/4
13	5	113/4
14	9	122/4
15	10	132/4
16	8	140/4
17	12	152/4
18	9	161/4
19	7	168/5
20	12	180/5

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.