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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
8 Oct 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 92%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alyssa Healycaught · Diana Baig · Sadia Iqbal3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Diana Baig · b Sadia Iqbal | 20 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 86.96 |
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught and bowled · Fatima Sana1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Fatima Sana | 10 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
 Ellyse Perrystumped · Sidra Nawaz · Nashra Sandhu0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sidra Nawaz · b Nashra Sandhu | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
 Beth Mooneycaught · Sadaf Shamas · Fatima Sana11 fours · 0 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Sadaf Shamas · b Fatima Sana |
| 109 |
| 114 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 95.61 |
 Annabel Sutherlandbowled · Nashra Sandhu0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nashra Sandhu | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnercaught · Fatima Sana · Rameen Shamim0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fatima Sana · b Rameen Shamim | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathcaught · Diana Baig · Nashra Sandhu0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Diana Baig · b Nashra Sandhu | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Georgia Warehamcaught and bowled · Rameen Shamim0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Rameen Shamim | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Kim Garthstumped · Sidra Nawaz · Diana Baig0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sidra Nawaz · b Diana Baig | 11 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 23.40 |
|---|
 Alana Kingnot out3 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 51* | 49 | 3 | 3 | 104.08 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Baig0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 74 | 1 | 7.40 | 5 | 0 |
| Fatima Sana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Sadia Iqbal2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 3.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Rameen Shamim1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 29 | 2 | 2.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (Alyssa Healy, 7.0) · 2-30 (Phoebe Litchfield, 7.3) · 3-55 (Ellyse Perry, 12.5) · 4-59 (Annabel Sutherland, 14.3) · 5-60 (Ashleigh Gardner, 15.2) · 6-75 (Tahlia McGrath, 20.3) · 7-76 (Georgia Wareham, 21.2) · 8-115 (Kim Garth, 33.5) · 9-221 (Beth Mooney, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 36/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 38/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 40/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 48/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 55/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 58/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 60/4 |
| 16 | 0 | 60/5 |
| 17 | 6 | 66/5 |
| 18 | 3 | 69/5 |
| 19 | 1 | 70/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 74/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 75/6 |
| 22 | 3 | 78/7 |
| 23 | 2 | 80/7 |
| 24 | 0 | 80/7 |
| 25 | 3 | 83/7 |
| 26 | 1 | 84/7 |
| 27 | 5 | 89/7 |
| 28 | 2 | 91/7 |
| 29 | 2 | 93/7 |
| 30 | 1 | 94/7 |
| 31 | 3 | 97/7 |
| 32 | 3 | 100/7 |
| 33 | 4 | 104/7 |
| 34 | 13 | 117/8 |
| 35 | 4 | 121/8 |
| 36 | 2 | 123/8 |
| 37 | 5 | 128/8 |
| 38 | 5 | 133/8 |
| 39 | 5 | 138/8 |
| 40 | 2 | 140/8 |
| 41 | 6 | 146/8 |
| 42 | 0 | 146/8 |
| 43 | 9 | 155/8 |
| 44 | 3 | 158/8 |
| 45 | 4 | 162/8 |
| 46 | 6 | 168/8 |
| 47 | 13 | 181/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 187/8 |
| 49 | 13 | 200/8 |
| 50 | 21 | 221/9 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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