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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
20 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Rwanda started on 10%; Rwanda batted first.
Rwanda's chances ranged from 0% to 26% during the match (Kenya: 74% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O Manishimwebowled · Lucas Oluoch 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lucas Oluoch | 7 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 36.84 |
| D Ndikubwimanarun out · Pushkar Sharma, Shem Ngoche · Shem Ngoche 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Pushkar Sharma, Shem Ngoche | 29 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 76.32 |
| W Niyitangabowled · Sachin Gill 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| D Gumyusengecaught and bowled · Peter Langat 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Peter Langat | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Yves Cyusabowled · Pushkar Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pushkar Sharma | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 70.59 |
| caught · Lucas Oluoch · b Shem Ngoche |
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 25.00 |
| E Rukirizanot out 1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 18* | 15 | 1 | 2 | 120.00 |
|---|
| M Akayezuhit wicket · Lucas Oluoch 1 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Lucas Oluoch | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Muhammad Nadirnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sachin Gill1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Peter Langat0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 4.67 | 4 | 0 |
| Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Vraj Patel0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 5 | 0 |
 Pushkar Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shem Ngoche1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (O Manishimwe, 3.4) · 2-26 (W Niyitanga, 5.0) · 3-28 (D Gumyusenge, 6.3) · 4-59 (Yves Cyusa, 12.4) · 5-68 (D Ndikubwimana, 15.2) · 6-68 (C Rububagumya, 15.3) · 7-90 (M Akayezu, 18.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 26/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 29/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 33/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 35/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 43/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 49/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 56/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 59/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 66/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 68/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 69/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 76/6 |
| 18 | 9 | 85/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 94/7 |
| 20 | 6 | 100/7 |
Pushkar Sharma: SAKSHI0989 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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