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Canada Women tour of Uganda · 2025/26 · Women
20 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 28%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (Uganda: 71% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Pereracaught · K Amuge · NJ Amongin 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Amuge · b NJ Amongin | 13 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 61.90 |
| V Mahajanbowled · K Amuge 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Amuge | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| J Oldhamcaught · Immaculate Nakisuuyi · K Amuge 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Immaculate Nakisuuyi · b K Amuge | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
 Amarpal Kaurcaught and bowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi | 18 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 58.06 |
| Indomatie Goordialrun out · Rita Musamali, Kevin Awino · S Akiteng 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rita Musamali, Kevin Awino |
| 9 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 64.29 |
| TA Laviarun out · Immaculate Nakisuuyi, Stephanie Nampiina · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Immaculate Nakisuuyi, Stephanie Nampiina | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Habeeba Badercaught · K Amuge · S Akiteng 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Amuge · b S Akiteng | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Rabbjyot Rajputcaught and bowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
| Zeel Patellbw · K Amuge 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b K Amuge | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| T Thorpenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| K Kapadiacaught · S Akiteng · K Amuge 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Akiteng · b K Amuge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Amuge0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.1 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 4.08 | 2 | 0 |
| Concy Aweko1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 1 | 0 |
| S Akiteng0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| NJ Amongin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (V Mahajan, 2.4) · 2-11 (J Oldham, 4.3) · 3-24 (A Perera, 7.0) · 4-43 (Indomatie Goordial, 12.3) · 5-48 (TA Lavia, 13.4) · 6-50 (Amarpal Kaur, 14.0) · 7-56 (Habeeba Bader, 16.0) · 8-59 (Rabbjyot Rajput, 17.3) · 9-67 (Zeel Patel, 18.5) · 10-67 (K Kapadia, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 16/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 24/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 27/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 29/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 34/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 38/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 40/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 45/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 50/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 54/6 |
| 16 | 2 | 56/7 |
| 17 | 3 | 59/7 |
| 18 | 1 | 60/8 |
| 19 | 7 | 67/10 |
Amarpal Kaur: ISimarKhosa · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
