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ECA Women's European Cup · 2026/27 · Women
18 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Romania more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Romania started on 71%; Romania batted first.
Romania's chances ranged from 0% to 82% during the match (Bulgaria: 18% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iuliana Munteanrun out · Tanaya Dissanayake · Tanaya Dissanayake 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tanaya Dissanayake | 48 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 69.57 |
| Daria Tanasebowled · D Ruynekova 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b D Ruynekova | 8 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 38.10 |
| Niroshi Kuruppulbw · Stanislava Sarandeva 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Stanislava Sarandeva | 21 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 116.67 |
| Gabriela Ionitacaught · Stanislava Sarandeva · Deya Stefanova 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Stanislava Sarandeva · b Deya Stefanova | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Alina Lupascurun out · Katrin Srandeva, Katrin Eftimova · Gabriela Ilarionova 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Katrin Srandeva, Katrin Eftimova | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Cristina Cirlignot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 17 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanislava Sarandeva0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 6 | 0 |
| Tanaya Dissanayake1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Gabriela Ilarionova0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Deya Stefanova0 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 3 | 2 |
| D Ruynekova0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Katrin Srandeva0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-38 (Daria Tanase, 7.1) · 2-71 (Niroshi Kuruppu, 13.0) · 3-74 (Gabriela Ionita, 13.5) · 4-94 (Alina Lupascu, 17.5) · 5-108 (Iuliana Muntean, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 47/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 57/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 58/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 63/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 71/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 80/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 89/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 92/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 96/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 102/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 108/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.