Papua New GuineaversusVanuatu

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Vanuatu (1,540 vs 1,354 on our results rating)
• In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Papua New Guinea won 6 and Vanuatu won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Papua New Guinea started on 85%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 85% to 100% during the match (Vanuatu: 0% to 15%).

Biggest swings

1. 4.1: TL Cutler to S Bau, S Bau out. Vanuatu up from 10% to 14%.
2. 7.2: PK Matautaava to TP Ura, six by TP Ura. Papua New Guinea up from 86% to 88%.
3. 7.4: PK Matautaava to TP Ura, six by TP Ura. Papua New Guinea up from 88% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.