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Asian Games Men's Cricket Competition · 2026 · Men
1 Oct 2026 · T20
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 87%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 18%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaibhav Suryavanshicaught · Sineth Jayawardena · Sahan Arachchige 6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Sineth Jayawardena · b Sahan Arachchige | 38 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 180.95 |
| Abhishek Sharmacaught · Sineth Jayawardena · Sahan Arachchige 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sineth Jayawardena · b Sahan Arachchige | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 233.33 |
 Sanju Samsonbowled · Tharindu Ratnayake1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tharindu Ratnayake | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
 Shreyas Iyerbowled · W Sahan1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b W Sahan | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| not out |
| 80* |
| 46 |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| 173.91 |
 Axar Patelcaught · Sahan Arachchige · Lasith Croospulle0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sahan Arachchige · b Lasith Croospulle | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
 Tilak Varmastumped · Sohan de Livera · Nuwanidu Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sohan de Livera · b Nuwanidu Fernando | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Shivam Dubecaught · Sahan Arachchige · Tharindu Ratnayake0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sahan Arachchige · b Tharindu Ratnayake | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Washington Sundarnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 3 | 0 | 1 | 233.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tharindu Ratnayake0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 8.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Sahan Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Binura Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 12.33 | 1 | 0 |
| W Sahan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Vijayakanth Viyaskanth0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Lasith Croospulle0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Nuwanidu Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Abhishek Sharma, 1.2) · 2-24 (Sanju Samson, 3.0) · 3-59 (Vaibhav Suryavanshi, 6.2) · 4-87 (Shreyas Iyer, 9.4) · 5-112 (Axar Patel, 13.5) · 6-125 (Tilak Varma, 15.0) · 7-151 (Shivam Dube, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 17/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 24/2 |
| 4 | 12 | 36/2 |
| 5 | 15 | 51/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 58/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 62/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 67/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 76/3 |
| 10 | 12 | 88/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 92/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 98/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 107/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 114/5 |
| 15 | 11 | 125/6 |
| 16 | 3 | 128/6 |
| 17 | 9 | 137/6 |
| 18 | 9 | 146/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 151/7 |
| 20 | 18 | 169/7 |
Sanju Samson: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chamika Karunaratne: Point of Pavithra · CC BY 3.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ashen Bandara: Yohan Mahima Perera · CC BY 4.0
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Tilak Varma: Buchi Babu Sana · CC BY 4.0
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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