IndiaversusWest Indies

17 Dec 2024 · T20

Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 9 wickets

India20.0 overs159/9 West Indies15.4 overs160/1 Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

79%India21%West Indies

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and West Indies won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than West Indies (1,678 vs 1,593 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 76%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

India's chances ranged from 0% to 80% during the match (West Indies: 20% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: DJS Dottin to U Chetry, U Chetry out. West Indies up from 23% to 31%.
2nd inns 6.4: SZ Thakor to Q Joseph, Q Joseph out. India up from 28% to 40%.
2nd inns 7.6: RP Yadav to HK Matthews, four by HK Matthews. West Indies up from 59% to 69%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India159/9 West Indies160/1

Innings 1

India

159/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Afy Fletcher · Hayley Matthews 9 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Afy Fletcher · b Hayley Matthews	62	41	9	1	151.22
Uma Chetrybowled · Deandra Dottin 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Deandra Dottin	4	6	0	0	66.67
Jemimah Rodrigueslbw · Hayley Matthews 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Hayley Matthews	13	15	2	0	86.67
Raghvi Bistlbw · Afy Fletcher 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Afy Fletcher	5	8	0	0	62.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	2	9.25	4
Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	2	3.50	1
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	2	9.00	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	2	9.33	1
Ashmini Munisar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	6	12/1
3	4	16/1
4	1	17/1
5	16	33/1
6	2	35/2
7	8	43/2
8	5	48/2
9	7	55/3
10	5	60/3
11	6	66/3
12	6	72/3
13	19	91/3
14	17	108/4
15	2	110/5
16	4	114/6
17	12	126/6
18	17	143/6
19	5	148/7
20	11	159/9

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