**Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra**
Photo: Amuzujoe
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

African Games · 2023/24 · Men

NigeriaversusZimbabwe

20 Mar 2024 · T20

Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 10 wickets

Nigeria17.4 overs88/9 Zimbabwe16.0 overs91/0 Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

40%Nigeria60%Zimbabwe

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 1 and Nigeria won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Nigeria (1,540 vs 1,509 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nigeria started on 39%; Nigeria batted first.

Nigeria’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Nigeria's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Zimbabwe: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: TZ Chataira to D Ajekun, D Ajekun out. Zimbabwe up from 54% to 64%.
4.5: O Muzondo to JO Adedeji, JO Adedeji out. Zimbabwe up from 61% to 70%.
5.3: T Gwandu to R Abdulkareem, R Abdulkareem out. Zimbabwe up from 71% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nigeria88/9 Zimbabwe91/0

Innings 1

Nigeria

88/917.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nigeria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sulaimon Runsewebowled · Takudzwa Chataira 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Takudzwa Chataira	13	22	0	0	59.09
Daniel Ajekunlbw · Takudzwa Chataira 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Takudzwa Chataira	4	3	1	0	133.33
Isaac Danladiretired hurt · Trevor Gwandu 1 fours · 1 sixes	retired hurt	15*	9	1	1	166.67
Sesan Adedejicaught · Rodney Mupfudza · Owen Muzondo 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rodney Mupfudza · b Owen Muzondo	2	5	0	0	40.00
R Abdulkareembowled · Trevor Gwandu 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Trevor Gwandu	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Wallace Mubayiwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	0	5.67	0	0
Takudzwa Chataira0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	2.0	16	2	8.00	1	2
Owen Muzondo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	11	3	2.75	0	0
Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	10	2	3.75	1	0
Tashinga Musekiwa0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	3	0
Tony Munyonga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	0	3.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	14	23/1
3	4	27/1
4	3	30/1
5	2	32/2
6	1	33/3
7	9	42/3
8	2	44/4
9	3	47/4
10	3	50/4
11	4	54/4
12	2	56/4
13	7	63/5
14	5	68/5
15	8	76/5
16	2	78/7
17	4	82/8
18	6	88/9

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