IndiaversusWest Indies

15 Dec 2024 · T20

Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 49 runs

India20.0 overs195/4 West Indies20.0 overs146/7 Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

75%India25%West Indies

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and West Indies won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than West Indies (1,657 vs 1,614 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 71%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

India's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 29%).

Biggest swings

6.3: K Ramharack to U Chetry, U Chetry out. West Indies up from 18% to 23%.
2nd inns 9.3: TR Sadhu to Q Joseph, Q Joseph out. India up from 90% to 94%.
2nd inns 14.5: TR Sadhu to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. India up from 93% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India195/4 West Indies146/7

Innings 1

India

195/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Qiana Joseph · Karishma Ramharack 7 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Qiana Joseph · b Karishma Ramharack	54	33	7	2	163.64
Uma Chetrybowled · Karishma Ramharack 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Karishma Ramharack	24	26	4	0	92.31
Jemimah Rodriguesrun out · Shemaine Campbelle, Shamilia Connell · Qiana Joseph 9 fours · 2 sixes	run out · Shemaine Campbelle, Shamilia Connell	73	35	9	2	208.57
Richa Ghoshcaught · Mandy Mangru · Deandra Dottin 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mandy Mangru

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	3
Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	0
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	38	0	12.67	2
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	39	0	13.00	3
Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	1
Shamilia Connell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	1
Qiana Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	13	18/0
3	12	30/0
4	8	38/0
5	1	39/0
6	11	50/0
7	1	51/1
8	12	63/1
9	12	75/1
10	9	84/1
11	11	95/1
12	11	106/1
13	19	125/1
14	7	132/2
15	7	139/2
16	16	155/2
17	5	160/3
18	9	169/3
19	13	182/3
20	13	195/4

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.