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Quadrangular Twenty20 Series (Thailand) · 2025/26 · Men
27 Feb 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 72%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 28%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingcaught · Gakul Ghalley · Anand Mongar 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gakul Ghalley · b Anand Mongar | 34 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 117.24 |
| Abhishek Anandcaught · Anand Mongar · Tashi Phuntsho 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Anand Mongar · b Tashi Phuntsho | 17 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 141.67 |
| S Ravichandranbowled · Karma Dorji 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Karma Dorji | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| A Patmorebowled · Namgay Thinley 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Namgay Thinley | 43 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Ibrahim Takahashinot out 5 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 54* | 22 | 5 | 4 | 245.45 |
| run out · Thinley Jamtsho, Tenjin Rabgey |
| 7 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 116.67 |
| D Suzukinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashi Phuntsho0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 6 | 0 |
| Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Karma Dorji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 11.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Anand Mongar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Tenjin Rabgey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashi Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Namgay Thinley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 11.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-29 (Abhishek Anand, 3.0) · 2-41 (S Ravichandran, 5.1) · 3-99 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 13.3) · 4-138 (A Patmore, 17.2) · 5-148 (W Miyauchi, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 29/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 39/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 41/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 50/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 53/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 57/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 60/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 65/2 |
| 11 | 13 | 78/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 87/2 |
| 13 | 10 | 97/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 104/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 109/3 |
| 16 | 15 | 124/3 |
| 17 | 14 | 138/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 139/4 |
| 19 | 9 | 148/5 |
| 20 | 22 | 170/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.