Hong KongversusNepal

9 Mar 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 73 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs212/6 Nepal16.4 overs139/10 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

44%Hong Kong56%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Hong Kong (1,565 vs 1,520 on our results rating)
Hong Kong are playing at home in Hong Kong
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 5 and Hong Kong won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 42%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 67%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Aarif Sheikh to Nizakat Khan, Nizakat Khan out. Nepal up from 53% to 63%.
2nd inns 10.6: Aizaz Khan to RK Paudel, RK Paudel out. Hong Kong up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 12.1: Aizaz Khan to Aarif Sheikh, Aarif Sheikh out. Hong Kong up from 73% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong212/6 Nepal139/10

Innings 1

Hong Kong

212/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Martin Coetzeecaught · Pratis GC · Aakash Chand 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Pratis GC · b Aakash Chand	31	21	5	1	147.62
Nizakat Khancaught · Sundeep Jora · Aarif Sheikh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sundeep Jora · b Aarif Sheikh	0	3	0	0	0.00
Anshuman Rathcaught · Gulsan Jha · Pratis GC 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Gulsan Jha · b Pratis GC	39	32	3	2	121.88
Babar Hayatcaught · Rohit Kumar · Aakash Chand 3 fours · 13 sixes	caught · Rohit Kumar · b Aakash Chand	110	49	3	13	224.49
James Atkinsonlbw · Rashid Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Rashid Khan	0	3	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	1	12.33	0
Pratis GC0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1
Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	2
Aakash Chand0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	3	9.00	1
Bibek Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	1
Rashid Khan0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	48	1	16.00	4
Sagar Dhakal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	38	0	12.67	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	9	14/0
3	9	23/1
4	6	29/1
5	5	34/2
6	11	45/2
7	8	53/2
8	4	57/2
9	4	61/2
10	23	84/2
11	12	96/2
12	12	108/2
13	2	110/3
14	17	127/4
15	6	133/4
16	19	152/4
17	13	165/4
18	14	179/4
19	19	198/4
20	14	212/6

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