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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
7 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Mexico more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Mexico started on 58%; Mexico batted first.
Mexico's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (Brazil: 0% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shashikant Laxmancaught · MFI Assuncao · Kawsar Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MFI Assuncao · b Kawsar Khan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
| Rupesh Kumar Singhlbw · LH Rodrigues 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b LH Rodrigues | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| KB Patilbowled · LH Rodrigues 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b LH Rodrigues | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
| Praveen Santhanakrishnanlbw · Kawsar Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kawsar Khan | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Shantanu Kaveribowled · Yasar Haroon 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Yasar Haroon | 23 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 95.83 |
| caught · Muhammad Saleem · b R Avery |
| 32 |
| 35 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 91.43 |
| R Poojarycaught · MFI Assuncao · R Avery 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · MFI Assuncao · b R Avery | 20 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 125.00 |
|---|
| PK Mohanarangamlbw · R Avery 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b R Avery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shoaib Rafiqnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Pratik Singh Baislbw · R Avery 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b R Avery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Y Jastirun out · CC Machado · Kawsar Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · CC Machado | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawsar Khan1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| LH Rodrigues1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| R Avery0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| IC Simao0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Yasar Haroon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-6 (Shashikant Laxman, 0.3) · 2-9 (Rupesh Kumar Singh, 1.4) · 3-18 (KB Patil, 3.5) · 4-18 (Praveen Santhanakrishnan, 5.0) · 5-61 (Shantanu Kaveri, 12.2) · 6-95 (R Poojary, 17.1) · 7-95 (PK Mohanarangam, 17.2) · 8-96 (Luis Hermida, 17.4) · 9-97 (Pratik Singh Bais, 17.5) · 10-102 (Y Jasti, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 9/2 |
| 3 | 7 | 16/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 18/3 |
| 5 | 0 | 18/4 |
| 6 | 3 | 21/4 |
| 7 | 6 | 27/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 30/4 |
| 9 | 5 | 35/4 |
| 10 | 9 | 44/4 |
| 11 | 7 | 51/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 60/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 65/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 72/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 77/5 |
| 16 | 5 | 82/5 |
| 17 | 13 | 95/5 |
| 18 | 2 | 97/9 |
| 19 | 3 | 100/9 |
| 20 | 2 | 102/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.