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Nepal tour of Hong Kong · 2023/24 · Men
13 Mar 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 36%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Uracaught · Bibek Yadav · Kushal Bhurtel 5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Bibek Yadav · b Kushal Bhurtel | 61 | 37 | 5 | 4 | 164.86 |
| Sese Baucaught · Aakash Chand · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aakash Chand · b Karan KC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Assad Valacaught · Binod Bhandari · Aakash Chand0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Binod Bhandari · b Aakash Chand | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Lega Siakacaught · Karan KC · Aakash Chand 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karan KC · b Aakash Chand | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Hiri Hiricaught · Lokesh Bam · Gulsan Jha 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught |
| 15 |
| 9 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 166.67 |
| Hila Varelbw · Kushal Bhurtel 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kushal Bhurtel | 18 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Chad Sopercaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Aakash Chand 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Aakash Chand | 13 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 76.47 |
|---|
| Kiplin Dorigacaught · Lokesh Bam · Kushal Bhurtel 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Lokesh Bam · b Kushal Bhurtel | 14 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Alei Naonot out 1 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 30* | 10 | 1 | 3 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Kabua Moreanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Aakash Chand0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 10.25 | 1 | 1 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Pratis GC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Bibek Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Sese Bau, 0.2) · 2-14 (Assad Vala, 1.4) · 3-20 (Lega Siaka, 3.1) · 4-43 (Hiri Hiri, 5.2) · 5-91 (Hila Vare, 11.5) · 6-113 (Tony Ura, 13.4) · 7-137 (Kiplin Doriga, 17.4) · 8-154 (Chad Soper, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 11 | 15/2 |
| 3 | 5 | 20/2 |
| 4 | 14 | 34/3 |
| 5 | 8 | 42/3 |
| 6 | 11 | 53/4 |
| 7 | 4 | 57/4 |
| 8 | 7 | 64/4 |
| 9 | 8 | 72/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 75/4 |
| 11 | 14 | 89/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 92/5 |
| 13 | 14 | 106/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 113/6 |
| 15 | 11 | 124/6 |
| 16 | 7 | 131/6 |
| 17 | 5 | 136/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 143/7 |
| 19 | 12 | 155/8 |
| 20 | 16 | 171/8 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pratis GC: Hamrokhelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Binod Bhandari: Punya · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
