Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusSt Lucia Kings

3 Sept 2024 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Lucia Kings won by 7 wickets

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs142/7 St Lucia Kings17.0 overs144/3 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 43%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 0% to 58% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 42% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.3: RL Chase to Fakhar Zaman, Fakhar Zaman out. St Lucia Kings up from 42% to 50%.
2nd inns 3.4: Imad Wasim to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 19% to 28%.
2nd inns 7.2: CJ Green to PBB Rajapaksa, PBB Rajapaksa out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 16% to 23%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons142/7 St Lucia Kings144/3

Innings 1