Adelaide StrikersversusBrisbane Heat

27 Oct 2024 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Brisbane Heat won by 4 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs133/5 Brisbane Heat18.0 overs134/6 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 56%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Brisbane Heat is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (Brisbane Heat: 32% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: S Pandey to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Brisbane Heat up from 42% to 51%.
2nd inns 4.1: A Wellington to G Redmayne, G Redmayne out. Adelaide Strikers up from 21% to 31%.
2nd inns 8.2: O Prendergast to L Winfield-Hill, L Winfield-Hill out. Adelaide Strikers up from 26% to 38%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers133/5 Brisbane Heat134/6

Innings 1