PortugalversusNorway

7 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Portugal won by 16 runs

Portugal20.0 overs109/9 Norway16.4 overs93/10 Santarem Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Norway more likely to win

35%Portugal65%Norway

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Portugal (1,340 vs 1,200 on our results rating)
Portugal are playing at home in Portugal

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Portugal started on 34%; Portugal batted first.

Portugal’s chance of winning (%) · Norway is the rest

Portugal's chances ranged from 17% to 89% during the match (Norway: 11% to 83%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.6: IK Cheema to Alina Aslam, Alina Aslam out. Portugal up from 26% to 62%.
2nd inns 11.5: IK Cheema to Nayab Razwan, Nayab Razwan out. Portugal up from 24% to 59%.
2nd inns 15.2: J de Figueiredo to Lopamudra, Lopamudra out. Portugal up from 51% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Portugal109/9 Norway93/10

Innings 1

Portugal

109/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Portugal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sarah Collyerbowled · Alina Aslam 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Alina Aslam	24	36	2	0	66.67
SG Luijkebowled · R Immadi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Immadi	0	2	0	0	0.00
GS Sequeirabowled · R Immadi 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Immadi	7	9	1	0	77.78
J de Figueiredocaught and bowled · P Agrawal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b P Agrawal	1	3	0	0	33.33
K Sequieranot out 3 fours · 0 sixes	not out	37*	39	3	0	94.87
IK Cheemabowled · Prachi Kumari 1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Alina Aslam0 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	1	8.67	11	0
R Immadi0 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	3	6.00	11	0
Lopamudra0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	20	0	6.67	1	1
P Agrawal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	11	2	2.75	0	0
Mirab Razwan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	1	0
Prachi Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	8	1	4.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	5	6/1
3	16	22/1
4	6	28/2
5	8	36/2
6	4	40/3
7	6	46/3
8	2	48/3
9	6	54/3
10	6	60/3
11	9	69/4
12	4	73/4
13	4	77/4
14	5	82/5
15	1	83/6
16	3	86/6
17	3	89/8
18	6	95/8
19	6	101/8
20	8	109/9

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