GermanyversusDenmark

19 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Denmark won by 5 wickets

Germany20.0 overs146/9 Denmark19.2 overs148/5 Svanholm Park, Brondby ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Germany more likely to win

73%Germany27%Denmark

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Germany rate stronger than Denmark (1,592 vs 1,462 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Germany won 5 and Denmark won 1
Denmark are playing at home in Denmark

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Germany started on 71%; Germany batted first.

Germany’s chance of winning (%) · Denmark is the rest

Germany's chances ranged from 1% to 81% during the match (Denmark: 20% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.4: JD Bhatt to HAM Shah, HAM Shah out. Germany up from 55% to 66%.
2nd inns 5.5: Ghulam Ahmadi to S Heath, S Heath out. Germany up from 29% to 40%.
2nd inns 6.5: V Jatinder Kumar to SA Ahmad, SA Ahmad out. Germany up from 32% to 47%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Germany146/9 Denmark148/5

Innings 1

Germany

146/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Germany batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shahid Afridi (2)caught · Abdullah Mahmood · Surya Anand 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Abdullah Mahmood · b Surya Anand	12	5	0	2	240.00
Musadiq Ahmedcaught · Sebastian Heath · Simon Sorensen 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sebastian Heath · b Simon Sorensen	0	2	0	0	0.00
Joshua van Heerdencaught · Hamid Shah · Simon Sorensen 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Hamid Shah · b Simon Sorensen	67	49	5	2	136.73
Harmanjot Singhbowled · Mustakim Aslam 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mustakim Aslam	10	18	1	0	55.56
JWP Stephancaught · Abdullah Mahmood · Eshan Karimi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Abdullah Mahmood · b Eshan Karimi	12	16	0	0	75.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Surya Anand0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	33	1	11.00	0
Simon Sorensen1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	18	3	4.50	6
Mustakim Aslam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	31	2	7.75	0
Eshan Karimi0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	1	7.50	4
Lucky Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	0
Saif Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/1
2	0	12/2
3	5	17/2
4	5	22/2
5	16	38/2
6	3	41/2
7	5	46/3
8	4	50/3
9	6	56/3
10	6	62/3
11	11	73/3
12	7	80/3
13	8	88/4
14	3	91/5
15	9	100/5
16	2	102/6
17	12	114/6
18	8	122/6
19	11	133/7
20	13	146/9

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