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New Zealand tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
11 Jan 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 32%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwaybowled · Harshit Rana 6 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Harshit Rana | 56 | 67 | 6 | 1 | 83.58 |
| Henry Nichollscaught · KL Rahul · Harshit Rana 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Harshit Rana | 62 | 69 | 8 | 0 | 89.86 |
 Will Youngcaught · KL Rahul · Mohammed Siraj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Mohammed Siraj | 12 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Daryl Mitchelllbw · Prasidh Krishna 5 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Prasidh Krishna | 84 | 71 | 5 | 3 | 118.31 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Shreyas Iyer · Kuldeep Yadav 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Iyer · b Kuldeep Yadav |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 1% to 64% during the match (India: 36% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 12 |
| 19 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 63.16 |
| Mitchell Haybowled · Prasidh Krishna 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prasidh Krishna | 18 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 138.46 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellrun out · Shreyas Iyer · Harshit Rana 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shreyas Iyer | 16 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesbowled · Mohammed Siraj 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammed Siraj | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Kris Clarkenot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 24* | 17 | 3 | 0 | 141.18 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesonnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Siraj0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 2 | 6.50 | 4 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 5.78 | 1 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 6.22 | 1 | 0 |
1-117 (Henry Nicholls, 21.4) · 2-126 (Devon Conway, 24.0) · 3-146 (Will Young, 27.5) · 4-170 (Glenn Phillips, 33.2) · 5-198 (Mitchell Hay, 37.3) · 6-237 (Michael Bracewell, 43.0) · 7-239 (Zakary Foulkes, 43.3) · 8-281 (Daryl Mitchell, 47.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 36/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 40/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 49/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 53/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 56/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 63/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 69/0 |
| 15 | 7 | 76/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 79/0 |
| 17 | 5 | 84/0 |
| 18 | 3 | 87/0 |
| 19 | 8 | 95/0 |
| 20 | 9 | 104/0 |
| 21 | 5 | 109/0 |
| 22 | 9 | 118/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 122/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 126/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 133/2 |
| 26 | 8 | 141/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 143/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 146/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 150/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 153/3 |
| 31 | 9 | 162/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 166/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 170/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 173/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 180/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 186/4 |
| 37 | 10 | 196/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 200/5 |
| 39 | 9 | 209/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 212/5 |
| 41 | 11 | 223/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 227/5 |
| 43 | 10 | 237/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 241/7 |
| 45 | 9 | 250/7 |
| 46 | 10 | 260/7 |
| 47 | 7 | 267/7 |
| 48 | 14 | 281/8 |
| 49 | 5 | 286/8 |
| 50 | 14 | 300/8 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Adithya Ashok: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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