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Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
11 Nov 2025 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 58%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamanstumped · Kusal Mendis · Wanindu Hasaranga2 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 32 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 58.18 |
| Saim Ayublbw · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
 Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Wanindu Hasaranga3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 29 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 56.86 |
 Mohammad Rizwanlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 31% to 99% during the match (Sri Lanka: 1% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 62.50 |
| Salman Ali Aghanot out 9 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 105* | 87 | 9 | 0 | 120.69 |
|---|
| Hussain Talatlbw · Mahesh Theekshana 6 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana | 62 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 98.41 |
|---|
| Mohammad Nawaznot out 5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 36* | 23 | 5 | 1 | 156.52 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 13 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando2 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 4 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 63 | 0 | 6.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 1 | 6.40 | 2 | 1 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 6.00 | 6 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 3 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Saim Ayub, 4.1) · 2-68 (Fakhar Zaman, 17.5) · 3-76 (Mohammad Rizwan, 19.4) · 4-95 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 23.2) · 5-233 (Hussain Talat, 43.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 14/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 14/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 14/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 24/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 28/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 31/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 42/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 46/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 49/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 50/1 |
| 17 | 10 | 60/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 68/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 72/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 77/3 |
| 21 | 8 | 85/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 92/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 94/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 95/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 96/4 |
| 26 | 6 | 102/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 104/4 |
| 28 | 7 | 111/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 116/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 119/4 |
| 31 | 13 | 132/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 137/4 |
| 33 | 7 | 144/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 151/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 152/4 |
| 36 | 10 | 162/4 |
| 37 | 10 | 172/4 |
| 38 | 8 | 180/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 190/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 195/4 |
| 41 | 12 | 207/4 |
| 42 | 14 | 221/4 |
| 43 | 11 | 232/4 |
| 44 | 8 | 240/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 246/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 252/5 |
| 47 | 5 | 257/5 |
| 48 | 20 | 277/5 |
| 49 | 12 | 289/5 |
| 50 | 10 | 299/5 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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