Northern DistrictsversusAuckland

13 Jan 2025 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 13 runs

Northern Districts20.0 overs152/7 Auckland20.0 overs139/7 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 52%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 46% to 99% during the match (Auckland: 1% to 55%).

Biggest swings

0.4: AT Hucker to JM Watkin, JM Watkin out. Auckland up from 44% to 54%.
2nd inns 11.4: NH Patel to BM Halliday, BM Halliday out. Northern Districts up from 61% to 71%.
2nd inns 12.4: JM Watkin to ML Green, ML Green out. Northern Districts up from 73% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts152/7 Auckland139/7

Innings 1