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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
3 Mar 2024 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 33%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Scotland: 65% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waseem Muhammadrun out · Charlie Tear, Chris Greaves · Safyaan Sharif 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Charlie Tear, Chris Greaves | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Vriitya Aravindcaught · Brad Currie · Scott Currie 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brad Currie · b Scott Currie | 26 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 42.62 |
 Alishan Sharafustumped · Matty Cross · Brad Currie1 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Matty Cross · b Brad Currie | 14 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 70.00 |
| Asif Khancaught · Brandon McMullen · Brad Currie 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Brad Currie | 11 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 57.89 |
| Rahul Chopralbw · Chris Greaves0 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Chris Greaves |
| 5 |
| 21 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 23.81 |
| Aayan Afzal Khannot out 2 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 45* | 70 | 2 | 2 | 64.29 |
|---|
| Basil Hameedbowled · Safyaan Sharif 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Safyaan Sharif | 15 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 30.61 |
|---|
| Zuhaib Zubaircaught · Charlie Tear · Scott Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Tear · b Scott Currie | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Rahul Bhatiabowled · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Currie | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Zahoor Farooqilbw · Mark Watt 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mark Watt | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquerun out · Michael Leask · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Michael Leask | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 3.11 | 1 | 0 |
 Mark Watt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Currie3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Greaves0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 3.14 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Waseem Muhammad, 1.2) · 2-28 (Alishan Sharafu, 8.5) · 3-42 (Asif Khan, 12.4) · 4-59 (Rahul Chopra, 19.5) · 5-63 (Vriitya Aravind, 22.2) · 6-114 (Basil Hameed, 38.2) · 7-120 (Zuhaib Zubair, 39.5) · 8-130 (Rahul Bhatia, 42.3) · 9-131 (Zahoor Farooqi, 44.0) · 10-132 (Junaid Siddique, 45.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 27/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 27/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 29/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 38/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 43/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 47/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 51/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 53/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 54/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 56/3 |
| 19 | 0 | 56/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 59/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 60/4 |
| 22 | 3 | 63/4 |
| 23 | 0 | 63/5 |
| 24 | 5 | 68/5 |
| 25 | 0 | 68/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 71/5 |
| 27 | 6 | 77/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 79/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 80/5 |
| 30 | 2 | 82/5 |
| 31 | 0 | 82/5 |
| 32 | 10 | 92/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 96/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 99/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 102/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 105/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 109/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 114/5 |
| 39 | 1 | 115/6 |
| 40 | 5 | 120/7 |
| 41 | 4 | 124/7 |
| 42 | 6 | 130/7 |
| 43 | 0 | 130/8 |
| 44 | 1 | 131/9 |
| 45 | 1 | 132/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
