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Photo: Yorkspotter
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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South Africa tour of England · 2025 · Men
4 Sept 2025 · ODI
Lord's · Venue photographToo close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 49%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught and bowled · Adil Rashid6 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Adil Rashid | 49 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 76.56 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Jos Buttler · Jofra Archer5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jofra Archer | 35 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 106.06 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Jos Buttler · Adil Rashid0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Adil Rashid | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Matthew Breetzkelbw · Jofra Archer 7 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Jofra Archer | 85 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 42% to 97% during the match (England: 3% to 58%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 77 |
| 7 |
| 3 |
| 110.39 |
| Tristan Stubbsrun out · Will Jacks, Jofra Archer · Jofra Archer 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Will Jacks, Jofra Archer | 58 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 93.55 |
|---|
| Dewald Breviscaught · Adil Rashid · Jacob Bethell 3 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Adil Rashid · b Jacob Bethell | 42 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 210.00 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 32* | 29 | 3 | 0 | 110.34 |
|---|
| Senuran Muthusamylbw · Jofra Archer 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jofra Archer | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajbowled · Jofra Archer0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jofra Archer | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 4 | 6.20 | 3 | 0 |
 Saqib Mahmood1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 5.30 | 2 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 6.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 3.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 61 | 1 | 12.20 | 4 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 10.20 | 4 | 0 |
1-73 (Ryan Rickelton, 13.1) · 2-78 (Temba Bavuma, 14.4) · 3-93 (Aiden Markram, 19.0) · 4-240 (Matthew Breetzke, 40.0) · 5-259 (Tristan Stubbs, 41.5) · 6-297 (Dewald Brevis, 45.2) · 7-326 (Senuran Muthusamy, 49.1) · 8-330 (Keshav Maharaj, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 34/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 34/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 43/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 51/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 55/0 |
| 12 | 16 | 71/0 |
| 13 | 2 | 73/0 |
| 14 | 1 | 74/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 78/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 83/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 84/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 87/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 93/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 95/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 97/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 105/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 109/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 113/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 120/3 |
| 26 | 0 | 120/3 |
| 27 | 14 | 134/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 138/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 146/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 150/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 157/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 163/3 |
| 33 | 7 | 170/3 |
| 34 | 15 | 185/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 190/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 193/3 |
| 37 | 17 | 210/3 |
| 38 | 3 | 213/3 |
| 39 | 19 | 232/3 |
| 40 | 8 | 240/4 |
| 41 | 17 | 257/4 |
| 42 | 6 | 263/5 |
| 43 | 15 | 278/5 |
| 44 | 13 | 291/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 295/5 |
| 46 | 8 | 303/6 |
| 47 | 7 | 310/6 |
| 48 | 9 | 319/6 |
| 49 | 7 | 326/6 |
| 50 | 4 | 330/8 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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