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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024 · Men
26 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Ghana more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Mali started on 23%; Mali batted first.
Mali's chances ranged from 0% to 24% during the match (Ghana: 76% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TM Macaloubowled · Lee Nyarko 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lee Nyarko | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| MS Diakitebowled · Syed Aqeel Israr 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Syed Aqeel Israr | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| D Berthelbw · Lee Nyarko 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lee Nyarko | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| M Mallelbw · Obed Agbomadzie 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Obed Agbomadzie | 8 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 29.63 |
| S Kamatebowled · Lee Nyarko 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lee Nyarko | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| AD Fofanacaught · Lee Nyarko · Obed Agbomadzie 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Lee Nyarko · b Obed Agbomadzie |
| 2 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 15.38 |
| L Sanogobowled · Obed Agbomadzie 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Obed Agbomadzie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| CA Keitacaught · Richmond Baaleri · Vincent Ateak 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richmond Baaleri · b Vincent Ateak | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Y Konatecaught · Lee Nyarko · Obed Agbomadzie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lee Nyarko · b Obed Agbomadzie | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| A Nimaganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| L Berthebowled · Vincent Ateak 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vincent Ateak | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Nyarko1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Syed Aqeel Israr1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.67 | 5 | 0 |
| Obed Agbomadzie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Ateak0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (TM Macalou, 0.1) · 2-0 (D Berthe, 0.3) · 3-6 (MS Diakite, 4.0) · 4-7 (S Kamate, 4.4) · 5-17 (AD Fofana, 7.5) · 6-17 (L Sanogo, 8.0) · 7-20 (M Malle, 9.1) · 8-22 (Y Konate, 9.5) · 9-24 (CA Keita, 10.2) · 10-24 (L Berthe, 10.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 6/3 |
| 5 | 1 | 7/4 |
| 6 | 7 | 14/4 |
| 7 | 1 | 15/4 |
| 8 | 2 | 17/6 |
| 9 | 3 | 20/6 |
| 10 | 3 | 23/8 |
| 11 | 1 | 24/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.