MalawiversusGermany

10 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Malawi won by 8 runs

Malawi20.0 overs166/8 Germany19.5 overs158/10 TCA Oval, Blantyre ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Germany more likely to win

29%Malawi71%Germany

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Germany rate stronger than Malawi (1,527 vs 1,372 on our results rating)
Malawi are playing at home in Malawi
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Germany won 1 and Malawi won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malawi started on 26%; Malawi batted first.

Malawi’s chance of winning (%) · Germany is the rest

Malawi's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Germany: 0% to 81%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.5: A Limdawala to Fayaz Khan, Fayaz Khan out. Malawi up from 43% to 61%.
2nd inns 8.6: A Limdawala to Muslim Yar, Muslim Yar out. Malawi up from 61% to 84%.
2nd inns 9.6: SZ Vayani to H Singh, H Singh out. Malawi up from 78% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malawi166/8 Germany158/10

Innings 1

Malawi

166/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malawi batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
A Limdawalacaught · Musadiq Ahmed · Fayaz Khan 7 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Musadiq Ahmed · b Fayaz Khan	68	49	7	3	138.78
G Kansonkhocaught · Shahid Afridi (2) · Fayaz Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shahid Afridi (2) · b Fayaz Khan	5	5	1	0	100.00
Sami Sohailcaught · Mohammad Hassan Khan · Sajid Liaqat 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mohammad Hassan Khan · b Sajid Liaqat	7	5	0	1	140.00
D Kansonkhocaught · Shahid Afridi (2) · Adil Khan 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shahid Afridi (2) · b Adil Khan	32	25	3	1	128.00
SY Nihutecaught · Fayaz Khan · Muslim Yar 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Fayaz Khan · b Muslim Yar	16	11	3	0	145.45

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sajid Liaqat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	3	9.67	0
Fayaz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	0
Ghulam Ahmadi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	0	7.00	0
Muslim Yar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	0
Adil Khan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	1	13.00	3
V Jatinder Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Shahid Afridi (2)0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	5	11/1
3	12	23/2
4	10	33/2
5	6	39/2
6	9	48/2
7	4	52/2
8	7	59/2
9	11	70/2
10	8	78/2
11	15	93/3
12	2	95/3
13	15	110/3
14	4	114/3
15	9	123/4
16	8	131/4
17	15	146/4
18	5	151/5
19	4	155/6
20	11	166/8

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