PakistanversusNew Zealand

26 Mar 2025 · T20

Wellington Regional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 8 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs128/9 New Zealand10.0 overs131/2 Wellington Regional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

23%Pakistan77%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,621 vs 1,477 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Pakistan won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 20%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 23% during the match (New Zealand: 77% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: JA Duffy to Hassan Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz out. New Zealand up from 80% to 87%.
4.5: BV Sears to Mohammad Haris, Mohammad Haris out. New Zealand up from 85% to 90%.
5.3: JA Duffy to Omair Yousuf, Omair Yousuf out. New Zealand up from 90% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan128/9 New Zealand131/2

Innings 1

Pakistan

128/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammad Hariscaught · Mitchell Hay · Ben Sears 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Hay · b Ben Sears	11	17	2	0	64.71
Hassan Nawazcaught · James Neesham · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · James Neesham · b Jacob Duffy	0	3	0	0	0.00
Omair Yousufcaught · Mitchell Hay · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Hay · b Jacob Duffy	7	11	0	0	63.64
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Mark Chapman · James Neesham 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mark Chapman · b James Neesham	51	39	6	1	130.77
Usman Khancaught · Daryl Mitchell · Ish Sodhi 1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
William O’Rourke0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	0	7.25	4
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	1
Ben Sears0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	1
Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	0
James Neesham0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	5	5.50	5

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	4	8/1
3	6	14/1
4	6	20/1
5	3	23/2
6	4	27/3
7	10	37/3
8	6	43/4
9	3	46/4
10	6	52/4
11	2	54/5
12	6	60/5
13	8	68/5
14	3	71/5
15	16	87/5
16	14	101/5
17	7	108/7
18	9	117/7
19	6	123/9
20	5	128/9

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