TurkeyversusGuernsey

28 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Turkey won by 17 runs

Turkey20.0 overs126/9 Guernsey20.0 overs109/5 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Turkey more likely to win

67%Turkey33%Guernsey

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Turkey rate stronger than Guernsey (1,408 vs 1,288 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Turkey started on 66%; Turkey batted first.

Turkey’s chance of winning (%) · Guernsey is the rest

Turkey's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Guernsey: 0% to 48%).

Biggest swings

7.3: K Robert to G Ayan, G Ayan out. Guernsey up from 38% to 45%.
19.6: C Elmore to G Keles, 2 runs to G Keles. Turkey up from 74% to 81%.
2nd inns 7.5: Ezgi Nur Kilic to A Le Ray, A Le Ray out. Turkey up from 78% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Turkey126/9 Guernsey109/5

Innings 1

Turkey

126/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Turkey batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Ozkunduzcaught · K Robert · E Millington 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · K Robert · b E Millington	5	11	0	0	45.45
R Cenikbowled · K Robert 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Robert	2	7	0	0	28.57
Ezgi Nur Kilicbowled · K Robert 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Robert	15	18	3	0	83.33
G Ayancaught · H Atkinson · K Robert 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · H Atkinson · b K Robert	2	8	0	0	25.00
K Canavarcirun out · A Le Ray · K Robert 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · A Le Ray	10	10	1	0	100.00
Suzan Turanstumped · K De La Mare · C Elmore3 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
E Millington1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	9	1	2.25	5	0
M Watson0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	27	0	6.75	4	1
A Le Ray0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	2	6.50	5	0
K Robert0 maidens · 5 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	0	31	3	7.75	5	2
E Bourgaize0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	0	5.50	6	0
C Elmore0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	13	2	6.50	6	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	5	10/0
3	2	12/1
4	10	22/1
5	8	30/1
6	3	33/2
7	3	36/2
8	3	39/4
9	2	41/4
10	11	52/4
11	11	63/4
12	16	79/5
13	3	82/5
14	9	91/5
15	0	91/5
16	6	97/5
17	10	107/5
18	6	113/6
19	6	119/8
20	7	126/9

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