Colombo StrikersversusJaffna Kings

10 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Jaffna Kings won by 7 wickets

Colombo Strikers20.0 overs188/8 Jaffna Kings18.3 overs190/3 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Colombo Strikers started on 44%; Colombo Strikers batted first.

Colombo Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Jaffna Kings is the rest

Colombo Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 88% during the match (Jaffna Kings: 12% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: AM Fernando to Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Rahmanullah Gurbaz out. Jaffna Kings up from 33% to 43%.
2nd inns 4.1: Taskin Ahmed to P Nissanka, P Nissanka out. Colombo Strikers up from 74% to 84%.
2nd inns 9.6: Taskin Ahmed to RR Rossouw, six by RR Rossouw. Jaffna Kings up from 43% to 53%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Colombo Strikers188/8 Jaffna Kings190/3

Innings 1