BangladeshversusWest Indies

27 Jan 2025 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 8 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs144/3 West Indies16.5 overs145/2 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

13%Bangladesh87%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,600 vs 1,406 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 4 and Bangladesh won 0
West Indies are playing at home in Saint Kitts and Nevis

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 12%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (West Indies: 59% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.1: Fahima Khatun to SA Campbelle, SA Campbelle out. Bangladesh up from 22% to 32%.
2nd inns 12.1: Rabeya Khan to DJS Dottin, six by DJS Dottin. West Indies up from 63% to 73%.
2nd inns 12.5: Rabeya Khan to DJS Dottin, six by DJS Dottin. West Indies up from 72% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh144/3 West Indies145/2

Innings 1

Bangladesh

144/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Afy Fletcher · Hayley Matthews 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Afy Fletcher · b Hayley Matthews	12	11	2	0	109.09
Sobhana Mostarylbw · Afy Fletcher 4 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Afy Fletcher	22	21	4	0	104.76
Sharmin Akhtercaught · Afy Fletcher · Cherry-Ann Fraser 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Afy Fletcher · b Cherry-Ann Fraser	37	41	2	0	90.24
Nigar Sultananot out 5 fours · 2 sixes	not out	53*	40	5	2	132.50
Shorna Akter

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0
Cherry-Ann Fraser0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	1
Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	0	3.25	2
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	5
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	7	17/0
3	2	19/0
4	5	24/1
5	1	25/1
6	5	30/1
7	8	38/1
8	6	44/2
9	3	47/2
10	7	54/2
11	6	60/2
12	7	67/2
13	15	82/2
14	10	92/2
15	5	97/2
16	10	107/2
17	11	118/2
18	7	125/3
19	6	131/3
20	13	144/3

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