Chennai Super KingsversusSunrisers Hyderabad

25 Apr 2025 · T20

MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Hyderabad won by 5 wickets

Chennai Super Kings19.5 overs154/10 Sunrisers Hyderabad18.4 overs155/5 MA Chidambaram Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chennai Super Kings started on 55%; Chennai Super Kings batted first.

Chennai Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Sunrisers Hyderabad is the rest

Chennai Super Kings's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (Sunrisers Hyderabad: 36% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Mohammed Shami to SK Rasheed, SK Rasheed out. Sunrisers Hyderabad up from 44% to 60%.
2nd inns 8.1: RA Jadeja to H Klaasen, H Klaasen out. Chennai Super Kings up from 38% to 53%.
2nd inns 13.5: Noor Ahmad to Aniket Verma, Aniket Verma out. Chennai Super Kings up from 23% to 39%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chennai Super Kings154/10 Sunrisers Hyderabad155/5

Innings 1