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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
8 Jun 2024 · T20
Kensington Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 57%; Australia batted first.
Australia's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headbowled · Jofra Archer2 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Jofra Archer | 34 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 188.89 |
 David Warnerbowled · Moeen Ali2 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Moeen Ali | 39 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 243.75 |
 Mitchell Marshstumped · Jos Buttler · Liam Livingstone2 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Jos Buttler · b Liam Livingstone | 35 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 140.00 |
 Glenn Maxwellcaught · Philip Salt · Adil Rashid3 fours · 1 sixes |
| caught · Philip Salt · b Adil Rashid |
| 28 |
| 25 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 112.00 |
 Marcus Stoiniscaught · Harry Brook · Chris Jordan2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Chris Jordan | 30 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 176.47 |
|---|
| Tim Davidcaught · Liam Livingstone · Chris Jordan 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Liam Livingstone · b Chris Jordan | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 137.50 |
|---|
 Matthew Wadenot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 10 | 3 | 0 | 170.00 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminsrun out · Jos Buttler, Chris Jordan · Chris Jordan0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jos Buttler, Chris Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Moeen Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 22.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Mark Wood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 10.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Chris Jordan0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 11.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-70 (David Warner, 5.0) · 2-74 (Travis Head, 5.4) · 3-139 (Mitchell Marsh, 13.5) · 4-141 (Glenn Maxwell, 14.2) · 5-168 (Tim David, 16.5) · 6-200 (Marcus Stoinis, 19.4) · 7-200 (Pat Cummins, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 22 | 25/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 33/0 |
| 4 | 22 | 55/0 |
| 5 | 15 | 70/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 74/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 82/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 85/2 |
| 9 | 12 | 97/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 102/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 111/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 118/2 |
| 13 | 18 | 136/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 140/3 |
| 15 | 9 | 149/4 |
| 16 | 11 | 160/4 |
| 17 | 13 | 173/5 |
| 18 | 12 | 185/5 |
| 19 | 8 | 193/5 |
| 20 | 8 | 201/7 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Wade: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
David Warner: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Jonny Bairstow: Mcadge · CC BY-SA 4.0
Moeen Ali: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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