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Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
13 Jun 2025 · T20
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
Derbyshire started on 44%; Derbyshire batted first.
Derbyshire's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Nottinghamshire: 0% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aneurin Donaldcaught · Calvin Harrison · Liam Patterson-White7 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Calvin Harrison · b Liam Patterson-White | 73 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 214.71 |
| Caleb Jewellbowled · Calvin Harrison 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Calvin Harrison | 18 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 112.50 |
 Wayne Madsencaught · Liam Patterson-White · Calvin Harrison0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Liam Patterson-White · b Calvin Harrison | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 88.89 |
 Samit Patelcaught · Lyndon James · Robert Lord3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lyndon James |
| 14 |
| 9 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 155.56 |
| Martin Anderssonlbw · Calvin Harrison 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Calvin Harrison | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
 Brooke Guestnot out6 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 37* | 24 | 6 | 0 | 154.17 |
|---|
 Ross Whiteleynot out2 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 35* | 16 | 2 | 3 | 218.75 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Pennington0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Matthew Montgomery0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 18.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Sams0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 12.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Lord0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 11.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Harrison0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 3 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Patterson-White0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Lyndon James0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-61 (Caleb Jewell, 6.1) · 2-99 (Aneurin Donald, 9.4) · 3-99 (Wayne Madsen, 10.1) · 4-117 (Samit Patel, 11.5) · 5-134 (Martin Andersson, 14.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 18 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 29/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 13 | 44/0 |
| 6 | 17 | 61/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 66/1 |
| 8 | 11 | 77/1 |
| 9 | 15 | 92/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 99/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 107/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 117/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 123/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 132/4 |
| 15 | 4 | 136/5 |
| 16 | 12 | 148/5 |
| 17 | 10 | 158/5 |
| 18 | 13 | 171/5 |
| 19 | 10 | 181/5 |
| 20 | 18 | 199/5 |
Ross Whiteley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Fynn Hudson-Prentice: Dave Morton · Public domain
Aneurin Donald: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Aitchison: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brooke Guest: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Moores: Dave Morton · Public domain
Samit Patel: Oliver Brown · CC BY-SA 3.0
Daniel Sams: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wayne Madsen: Parklands cobbler · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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