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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
20 Feb 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 17%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzid Hasancaught · KL Rahul · Axar Patel 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Axar Patel | 25 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · KL Rahul · Mohammed Shami0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Mohammed Shami | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Virat Kohli · Harshit Rana0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Harshit Rana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Shubman Gill · Mohammed Shami1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shubman Gill · b Mohammed Shami |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (India: 66% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 5 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
 Tawhid Hridoycaught · Mohammed Shami · Harshit Rana6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Mohammed Shami · b Harshit Rana | 100 | 118 | 6 | 2 | 84.75 |
|---|
 Mushfiqur Rahimcaught · KL Rahul · Axar Patel0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Axar Patel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jaker Alicaught · Virat Kohli · Mohammed Shami4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Mohammed Shami | 68 | 114 | 4 | 0 | 59.65 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Hardik Pandya · Harshit Rana1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Hardik Pandya · b Harshit Rana | 18 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 150.00 |
|---|
 Tanzim Hasan Sakibbowled · Mohammed Shami0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammed Shami | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmedcaught · Shreyas Iyer · Mohammed Shami0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Iyer · b Mohammed Shami | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmannot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Shami0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 5 | 5.30 | 3 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.4 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 4.04 | 1 | 0 |
 Axar Patel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 4.78 | 0 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 4.11 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 4.30 | 0 | 1 |
1-1 (Soumya Sarkar, 1.0) · 2-2 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 1.4) · 3-26 (Mehedi Hasan, 6.2) · 4-35 (Tanzid Hasan, 8.2) · 5-35 (Mushfiqur Rahim, 8.3) · 6-189 (Jaker Ali, 42.4) · 7-214 (Rishad Hossain, 45.3) · 8-215 (Tanzim Hasan Sakib, 46.2) · 9-228 (Taskin Ahmed, 48.4) · 10-228 (Tawhid Hridoy, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| 3 | 9 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 13/2 |
| 5 | 9 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 27/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 35/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 36/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 39/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 42/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 49/5 |
| 13 | 1 | 50/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 54/5 |
| 15 | 8 | 62/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 65/5 |
| 17 | 0 | 65/5 |
| 18 | 1 | 66/5 |
| 19 | 4 | 70/5 |
| 20 | 9 | 79/5 |
| 21 | 4 | 83/5 |
| 22 | 1 | 84/5 |
| 23 | 2 | 86/5 |
| 24 | 4 | 90/5 |
| 25 | 2 | 92/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 95/5 |
| 27 | 3 | 98/5 |
| 28 | 1 | 99/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 103/5 |
| 30 | 8 | 111/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 113/5 |
| 32 | 6 | 119/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 123/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 128/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 132/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 136/5 |
| 37 | 6 | 142/5 |
| 38 | 9 | 151/5 |
| 39 | 11 | 162/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 165/5 |
| 41 | 11 | 176/5 |
| 42 | 7 | 183/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 189/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 192/6 |
| 45 | 20 | 212/6 |
| 46 | 2 | 214/7 |
| 47 | 7 | 221/8 |
| 48 | 5 | 226/8 |
| 49 | 2 | 228/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 228/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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