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Pakistan T20I Tri-Series · 2025/26 · Men
27 Nov 2025 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 19%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 9% to 85% during the match (Pakistan: 15% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Salman Mirza 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Salman Mirza | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Mohammad Wasim · Abrar Ahmed 6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Mohammad Wasim · b Abrar Ahmed | 76 | 48 | 6 | 3 | 158.33 |
| Kusal Mendislbw · Abrar Ahmed 6 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Abrar Ahmed | 40 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 173.91 |
| Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Mohammad Nawaz · Saim Ayub 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Saim Ayub | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
 Janith Liyanagenot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 24* |
| 24 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Dasun Shanakarun out · Mohammad Babar Azam, Usman Khan · Mohammad Wasim 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Mohammad Babar Azam, Usman Khan | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 170.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salman Mirza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Wasim0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 9.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 13.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
1-16 (Pathum Nissanka, 2.1) · 2-82 (Kusal Mendis, 8.1) · 3-96 (Kushal Janith Perera, 10.4) · 4-153 (Kamil Mishara, 16.5) · 5-184 (Dasun Shanaka, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 16 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 43/1 |
| 6 | 15 | 58/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 66/1 |
| 8 | 16 | 82/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 85/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 93/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 98/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 108/3 |
| 13 | 14 | 122/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 129/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 137/3 |
| 16 | 7 | 144/3 |
| 17 | 9 | 153/4 |
| 18 | 7 | 160/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 171/4 |
| 20 | 13 | 184/5 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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