NamibiaversusNepal

12 Mar 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 23 runs

Namibia20.0 overs125/8 Nepal20.0 overs102/5 Entebbe Cricket Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

68%Namibia32%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Nepal (1,499 vs 1,408 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 1 and Nepal won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 65%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 48%).

Biggest swings

9.2: R Chaudhary to SN Shihepo, SN Shihepo out. Nepal up from 32% to 37%.
9.5: R Chaudhary to E Van Zyl, E Van Zyl out. Nepal up from 38% to 47%.
2nd inns 11.4: M Mwatile to I Barma, I Barma out. Namibia up from 80% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia125/8 Nepal102/5

Innings 1

Namibia

125/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sune Wittmannbowled · I Bist 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b I Bist	15	12	2	1	125.00
Kayleen Greenbowled · I Bist 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b I Bist	8	6	2	0	133.33
Yasmeen Khanbowled · Riya Sharma 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Riya Sharma	45	44	5	0	102.27
M Gorasesrun out · Samjhana Khadka, R Chaudhary · R Chaudhary 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Samjhana Khadka, R Chaudhary	4	10	0	0	40.00
Sylvia Shihepocaught · Roma Thapa · R Chaudhary 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Roma Thapa · b R Chaudhary	1	6	0	0	16.67
E Van Zyl

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Puja Mahato0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	8	0	4.00	0	0
I Bist0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	0	40	3	10.00	1	2
I Barma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	1	5.00	0	0
R Chaudhary1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	9	2	2.25	0	0
Riya Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	1	6.50	0	0
Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	18	19/1
3	9	28/1
4	5	33/2
5	3	36/2
6	2	38/2
7	7	45/2
8	3	48/3
9	2	50/3
10	0	50/5
11	8	58/5
12	6	64/5
13	4	68/5
14	8	76/5
15	12	88/5
16	8	96/6
17	7	103/6
18	5	108/7
19	5	113/8
20	12	125/8

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