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India Women tour of Australia · 2025/26 · Women
27 Feb 2026 · ODI
Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 15%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalrun out · Beth Mooney, Annabel Sutherland · Alana King 6 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Beth Mooney, Annabel Sutherland | 52 | 81 | 6 | 0 | 64.20 |
 Smriti Mandhanabowled · Ashleigh Gardner4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ashleigh Gardner | 31 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 83.78 |
 Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Beth Mooney · Annabel Sutherland0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Annabel Sutherland | 11 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 73.33 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Megan Schutt2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Phoebe Litchfield |
India's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (Australia: 67% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 54 |
| 70 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 77.14 |
 Deepti Sharmacaught · Nicola Carey · Alana King0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicola Carey · b Alana King | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Amanjot Kaurcaught · Beth Mooney · Nicola Carey 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Nicola Carey | 13 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 72.22 |
|---|
 Richa Ghoshlbw · Alana King2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Alana King | 22 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 115.79 |
|---|
| Kashvee Gautambowled · Ashleigh Gardner 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ashleigh Gardner | 25 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 73.53 |
|---|
| Kranti Goudcaught · Beth Mooney · Annabel Sutherland 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Annabel Sutherland | 19 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 126.67 |
|---|
| Shree Charaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Vaishnavi Sharmanot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 5 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Megan Schutt1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 46 | 1 | 5.11 | 1 | 0 |
 Darcie Brown0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 5.17 | 6 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Nicola Carey0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 6.88 | 2 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 5.29 | 2 | 0 |
 Alana King1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 4.10 | 0 | 0 |
1-78 (Smriti Mandhana, 16.3) · 2-98 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 21.3) · 3-100 (Pratika Rawal, 22.2) · 4-103 (Deepti Sharma, 24.1) · 5-130 (Amanjot Kaur, 30.1) · 6-162 (Richa Ghosh, 35.5) · 7-217 (Kashvee Gautam, 45.5) · 8-241 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 49.0) · 9-241 (Kranti Goud, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 31/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 41/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 41/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 43/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 48/0 |
| 12 | 7 | 55/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 59/0 |
| 14 | 5 | 64/0 |
| 15 | 4 | 68/0 |
| 16 | 9 | 77/0 |
| 17 | 4 | 81/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 84/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 88/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 92/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 97/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 100/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 100/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 103/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 105/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 112/4 |
| 27 | 5 | 117/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 121/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 128/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 130/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 135/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 136/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 143/5 |
| 34 | 10 | 153/5 |
| 35 | 7 | 160/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 163/6 |
| 37 | 4 | 167/6 |
| 38 | 5 | 172/6 |
| 39 | 5 | 177/6 |
| 40 | 1 | 178/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 182/6 |
| 42 | 5 | 187/6 |
| 43 | 8 | 195/6 |
| 44 | 10 | 205/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 214/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 218/7 |
| 47 | 13 | 231/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 236/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 241/8 |
| 50 | 10 | 251/9 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Nicola Carey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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