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Estonia tour of Cyprus · 2024 · Men
18 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Estonia started on 49%; Estonia batted first.
Estonia's chances ranged from 23% to 99% during the match (Cyprus: 1% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arslan Amjadlbw · MPGT Ketiyage 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b MPGT Ketiyage | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ali Masoodcaught and bowled · NK Tiwari 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b NK Tiwari | 23 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 109.52 |
| S Hookcaught · S Austin · B Mahesh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Austin · b B Mahesh | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 56.25 |
| Sahil Chauhanlbw · NK Tiwari 5 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b NK Tiwari | 42 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 182.61 |
| Bilal Masudcaught · S Austin · NK Tiwari 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Austin · b NK Tiwari | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 107.69 |
| Aditya Panwarcaught · J Chialoufas · A Shahi0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · J Chialoufas · b A Shahi |
| 21 |
| 22 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 95.45 |
| D Robsoncaught · A Shahi · Taranjit Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Shahi · b Taranjit Singh | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| M Vaikbowled · A Shahi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Shahi | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| A Paulbowled · S Burdekin 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Burdekin | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| R Parkincaught · SN Pathirana · A Shahi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · SN Pathirana · b A Shahi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| K Vislapuunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 17 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPGT Ketiyage0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 5 | 0 |
| B Mahesh0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 1 |
| A Shahi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 3 | 11.33 | 3 | 0 |
| NK Tiwari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Taranjit Singh0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 6 | 0 |
| S Burdekin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 6.38 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Arslan Amjad, 0.2) · 2-30 (S Hook, 5.1) · 3-57 (Ali Masood, 7.5) · 4-98 (Sahil Chauhan, 11.3) · 5-105 (Bilal Masud, 13.4) · 6-117 (D Robson, 16.4) · 7-139 (Aditya Panwar, 18.3) · 8-140 (M Vaik, 18.5) · 9-140 (R Parkin, 19.0) · 10-144 (A Paul, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 52/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 57/3 |
| 9 | 19 | 76/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 84/3 |
| 11 | 13 | 97/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 99/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 103/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 106/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 111/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 115/5 |
| 17 | 11 | 126/6 |
| 18 | 9 | 135/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 140/9 |
| 20 | 4 | 144/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.