Trinbago Knight RidersversusSt Lucia Kings

3 Sept 2025 · T20

Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Lucia Kings won by 7 wickets

Trinbago Knight Riders18.1 overs109/10 St Lucia Kings11.1 overs112/3 Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Trinbago Knight Riders started on 49%; Trinbago Knight Riders batted first.

Trinbago Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

Trinbago Knight Riders's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 50% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: K Pierre to C Munro, C Munro out. St Lucia Kings up from 51% to 65%.
2.2: K Pierre to DM Bravo, DM Bravo out. St Lucia Kings up from 58% to 68%.
6.2: T Shamsi to AJ Hosein, AJ Hosein out. St Lucia Kings up from 67% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Trinbago Knight Riders109/10 St Lucia Kings112/3

Innings 1