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Ireland Women tour of Bangladesh · 2024/25 · Women
30 Nov 2024 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 37%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbeslbw · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nahida Akter | 13 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 38.24 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · Sobhana Mostary · Sultana Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sobhana Mostary · b Sultana Khatun | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Amy Hunterlbw · Shorna Akter 8 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shorna Akter | 68 | 88 | 8 | 0 | 77.27 |
| Orla Prendergastrun out · Nigar Sultana, Rabeya Khan · Shorna Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nigar Sultana, Rabeya Khan | 37 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 51.39 |
| Laura Delanyrun out · Rabeya Khan · Nahida Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rabeya Khan | 33 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 66.00 |
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Bangladesh: 44% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Shorna Akter · b Sultana Khatun |
| 10 |
| 25 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
| Una Raymond-Hoeynot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 21* | 18 | 2 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Sultana Khatun1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 3.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 3.86 | 0 | 0 |
| Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Gaby Lewis, 3.4) · 2-35 (Sarah Forbes, 10.1) · 3-126 (Orla Prendergast, 34.1) · 4-127 (Amy Hunter, 34.5) · 5-153 (Leah Paul, 43.5) · 6-190 (Laura Delany, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 9/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 16/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 24/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 34/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 35/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 36/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 38/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 38/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 48/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 56/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 57/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 61/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 68/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 71/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 78/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 85/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 87/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 90/2 |
| 28 | 7 | 97/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 103/2 |
| 30 | 9 | 112/2 |
| 31 | 2 | 114/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 119/2 |
| 33 | 2 | 121/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 126/2 |
| 35 | 1 | 127/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 132/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 133/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 135/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 137/4 |
| 40 | 4 | 141/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 142/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 146/4 |
| 43 | 3 | 149/4 |
| 44 | 5 | 154/5 |
| 45 | 1 | 155/5 |
| 46 | 4 | 159/5 |
| 47 | 11 | 170/5 |
| 48 | 5 | 175/5 |
| 49 | 8 | 183/5 |
| 50 | 10 | 193/6 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Murshida Khatun: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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