New ZealandversusIndia

4 Oct 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 58 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs160/4 India19.0 overs102/10 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

27%New Zealand73%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,675 vs 1,461 on our results rating)
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 5 and India won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 26%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 27% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 73%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.1: EJ Carson to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. New Zealand up from 66% to 75%.
2nd inns 4.4: EJ Carson to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. New Zealand up from 78% to 85%.
2nd inns 5.4: RA Mair to H Kaur, H Kaur out. New Zealand up from 78% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand160/4 India102/10

Innings 1

New Zealand

160/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suzie Batescaught · Shreyanka Patil · Arundhati Reddy 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shreyanka Patil · b Arundhati Reddy	27	24	2	0	112.50
Georgia Plimmercaught · Smriti Mandhana · Asha Sobhana 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Asha Sobhana	34	23	3	1	147.83
Amelia Kerrcaught · Pooja Vastrakar · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Pooja Vastrakar · b Renuka Singh	13	22	0	0	59.09
Sophie Devinenot out 7 fours · 0 sixes	not out	57*

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Pooja Vastrakar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0
Renuka Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	2
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	0	11.25	2
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0
Asha Sobhana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	0
Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	0	8.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	4	13/0
3	16	29/0
4	6	35/0
5	8	43/0
6	12	55/0
7	6	61/0
8	6	67/1
9	1	68/2
10	4	72/2
11	3	75/2
12	6	81/2
13	12	93/2
14	5	98/2
15	11	109/3
16	8	117/3
17	6	123/3
18	16	139/3
19	10	149/4
20	11	160/4

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.