**The Rose Bowl, Southampton**
Photo: AssociateAffiliate
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

GloucestershireversusHampshire

12 Jul 2024 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hampshire won by 5 wickets

Gloucestershire20.0 overs176/9 Hampshire20.0 overs177/5 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 45%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Hampshire is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 35% to 92% during the match (Hampshire: 8% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.6: M de Lange to JJ Weatherley, JJ Weatherley out. Gloucestershire up from 44% to 63%.
2nd inns 19.1: DA Payne to BAC Howell, four by BAC Howell. Hampshire up from 32% to 51%.
2nd inns 19.6: DA Payne to BAC Howell, four by BAC Howell. Hampshire up from 45% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire176/9 Hampshire177/5

Innings 1