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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
10 Feb 2026 · T20
Sinhalese Sports Club Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 69%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 32%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saim Ayubcaught · Saurabh Netravalkar · Shadley van Schalkwyk 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Saurabh Netravalkar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 19 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 111.76 |
| Sahibzada Farhancaught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · Harmeet Singh 6 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · b Harmeet Singh | 73 | 41 | 6 | 5 | 178.05 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Shayan Jahangir · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Milind Kumar · Mohammad Mohsin4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Mohammad Mohsin | 46 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 143.75 |
| Mohammad Nawaz |
| caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Saurabh Netravalkar |
| 5 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
 Shadab Khancaught · Andries Gous · Shadley van Schalkwyk4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Andries Gous · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 30 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Fahim Ashrafcaught · Saurabh Netravalkar · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saurabh Netravalkar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Usman Khanrun out · Andries Gous, Saurabh Netravalkar · Saurabh Netravalkar0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Andries Gous, Saurabh Netravalkar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridinot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 9* | 4 | 0 | 1 | 225.00 |
|---|
 Abrar Ahmedrun out · Andries Gous, Shayan Jahangir · Saurabh Netravalkar0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Andries Gous, Shayan Jahangir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Ehsan Adil0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 13.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Mohsin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 10.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-54 (Saim Ayub, 5.1) · 2-56 (Salman Ali Agha, 6.0) · 3-137 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 14.4) · 4-143 (Sahibzada Farhan, 15.5) · 5-177 (Shadab Khan, 18.3) · 6-179 (Fahim Ashraf, 19.0) · 7-179 (Mohammad Nawaz, 19.1) · 8-182 (Usman Khan, 19.4) · 9-190 (Abrar Ahmed, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 32/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 16 | 54/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 56/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 60/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 66/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 75/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 85/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 91/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 101/2 |
| 13 | 21 | 122/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 133/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 137/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 145/4 |
| 17 | 12 | 157/4 |
| 18 | 16 | 173/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 179/6 |
| 20 | 11 | 190/9 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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