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Photo: Amanda Slater from Coventry, West Midlands, UK
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
28 Jun 2026 · T20
Old Deer Park, Richmond · Venue photographRecorded result
Durham started on 57%; Durham batted first.
Durham's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Middlesex: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Leescaught · Joe Cracknell · Eathan Bosch11 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Joe Cracknell · b Eathan Bosch | 108 | 64 | 11 | 4 | 168.75 |
 Graham Clarkcaught · Eathan Bosch · SHB Morgan1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Eathan Bosch · b SHB Morgan | 15 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 136.36 |
| BS McKinneycaught · Leus du Plooy · Josh de Caires 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Leus du Plooy · b Josh de Caires | 26 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 185.71 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · SHB Morgan · Tom Helm 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · SHB Morgan · b Tom Helm | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 122.22 |
| caught · Ben Geddes · b Tom Helm |
| 29 |
| 16 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 181.25 |
 Colin Ackermannnot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 6 | 4 | 0 | 300.00 |
|---|
 Ben Rainecaught · Ben Geddes · Eathan Bosch0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Geddes · b Eathan Bosch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zafar Gohar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Tom Helm0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 10.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Eathan Bosch0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 14.00 | 2 | 1 |
| SHB Morgan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh de Caires0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 11.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Boyle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Hollman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Graham Clark, 3.3) · 2-101 (BS McKinney, 9.2) · 3-137 (David Bedingham, 13.1) · 4-187 (Ollie Robinson, 18.0) · 5-218 (Alex Lees, 19.5) · 6-218 (Ben Raine, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 26/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 44/1 |
| 6 | 17 | 61/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 69/1 |
| 8 | 14 | 83/1 |
| 9 | 14 | 97/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 104/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 113/2 |
| 12 | 18 | 131/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 137/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 144/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 148/3 |
| 16 | 15 | 163/3 |
| 17 | 11 | 174/3 |
| 18 | 13 | 187/4 |
| 19 | 15 | 202/4 |
| 20 | 16 | 218/6 |
Luke Hollman: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Helm: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Lees: Dave Morton · CC BY-SA 4.0
Leus du Plooy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zafar Gohar: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Raine: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Robinson: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Graham Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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