South AfricaversusIndia

India more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,668 vs 1,498 on our results rating)
• India are playing at home in India
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 19%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 18% to 98% during the match (India: 3% to 82%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 5.2: A Khaka to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. South Africa up from 37% to 49%.
2. 2nd inns 9.6: CL Tryon to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. South Africa up from 47% to 61%.
3. 2nd inns 10.1: N de Klerk to D Hemalatha, D Hemalatha out. South Africa up from 61% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.