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South Africa tour of West Indies · 2024 · Men
25 May 2024 · T20
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 66%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Wiaan Mulder · Nqaba Peter 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Wiaan Mulder · b Nqaba Peter | 36 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 163.64 |
| Johnson Charlescaught · Ryan Rickelton · Bjorn Fortuin 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Bjorn Fortuin | 7 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 77.78 |
 Kyle Mayerscaught · Ryan Rickelton · Nqaba Peter2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Nqaba Peter | 32 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 200.00 |
 Roston Chasenot out7 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 67* | 38 | 7 | 2 | 176.32 |
| lbw · b Andile Phehlukwayo |
| 29 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 161.11 |
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Reeza Hendricks · Andile Phehlukwayo 1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Reeza Hendricks · b Andile Phehlukwayo | 26 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Fabian Allencaught · Matthew Breetzke · Lungi Ngidi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Lungi Ngidi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseincaught · Quinton de Kock · Lungi Ngidi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Quinton de Kock · b Lungi Ngidi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motienot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 10.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Anrich Nortje0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 11.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 8.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Andile Phehlukwayo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 17.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-26 (Johnson Charles, 3.4) · 2-54 (Brandon King, 6.4) · 3-83 (Kyle Mayers, 8.5) · 4-139 (Andre Fletcher, 14.5) · 5-202 (Romario Shepherd, 19.0) · 6-205 (Fabian Allen, 19.3) · 7-205 (Akeal Hosein, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 36/1 |
| 6 | 15 | 51/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 8 | 19 | 75/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 84/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 88/3 |
| 11 | 10 | 98/3 |
| 12 | 13 | 111/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 119/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 127/3 |
| 15 | 12 | 139/4 |
| 16 | 15 | 154/4 |
| 17 | 17 | 171/4 |
| 18 | 11 | 182/4 |
| 19 | 20 | 202/5 |
| 20 | 5 | 207/7 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Mayers: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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