EnglandversusNew Zealand

17 Jul 2024 · T20

Lord's · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 20 runs

England20.0 overs155/7 New Zealand20.0 overs135/8 Lord's ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

91%England9%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,778 vs 1,503 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 8 and New Zealand won 2
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 90%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

England's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 22%).

Biggest swings

0.1: FC Jonas to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. New Zealand up from 10% to 16%.
11.2: EJ Carson to AE Jones, AE Jones out. New Zealand up from 13% to 18%.
12.3: FC Jonas to FG Kemp, FG Kemp out. New Zealand up from 15% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England155/7 New Zealand135/8

Innings 1

England

155/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Danielle Wyattcaught · Amelia Kerr · Fran Jonas 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amelia Kerr · b Fran Jonas	0	1	0	0	0.00
Maia Bouchiercaught · Maddy Green · Fran Jonas 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Maddy Green · b Fran Jonas	13	12	2	0	108.33
Alice Capseystumped · Izzy Gaze · Eden Carson 4 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Izzy Gaze · b Eden Carson	25	27	4	0	92.59
Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught and bowled · Fran Jonas 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Fran Jonas	16

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Fran Jonas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	4	5.50	1	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	0	0
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	1	2
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	1	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	0	0
Eden Carson0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	8	11/1
3	3	14/1
4	14	28/1
5	5	33/2
6	7	40/2
7	9	49/2
8	7	56/2
9	5	61/3
10	5	66/4
11	10	76/4
12	6	82/5
13	9	91/6
14	9	100/6
15	9	109/6
16	10	119/6
17	7	126/6
18	15	141/6
19	6	147/7
20	8	155/7

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.