ItalyversusNetherlands

30 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 8 wickets

Italy20.0 overs72/8 Netherlands9.2 overs73/2 Sportpark Harga, Schiedam ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

13%Italy87%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Italy (1,514 vs 1,316 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 3 and Italy won 0
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Italy started on 13%; Italy batted first.

Italy’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Italy's chances ranged from 0% to 14% during the match (Netherlands: 86% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: HWA Landheer to M Rathnayake, M Rathnayake out. Netherlands up from 86% to 89%.
7.5: EN Lynch to D Nanayakkara, D Nanayakkara out. Netherlands up from 89% to 91%.
19.6: HWA Landheer to IU Jayamannage, 0 runs to IU Jayamannage. Netherlands up from 96% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Italy72/8 Netherlands73/2

Innings 1

Italy

72/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Italy batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
M Rathnayakebowled · Hannah Landheer 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Hannah Landheer	1	6	0	16.67
D Nanayakkaracaught and bowled · Eva Lynch 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Eva Lynch	7	15	0	46.67
C Mahamalagecaught · S Khurana · Caroline de Lange 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Khurana · b Caroline de Lange	21	42	2	50.00
Ilenia Simscaught · Babette de Leede · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Babette de Leede · b Iris Zwilling	15	22	0	68.18
EL Bartramcaught · Babette de Leede · Frederique Overdijk 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Babette de Leede · b Frederique Overdijk	9	8	1	112.50

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	1	2.50	0
Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	2	3.67	4
Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	9	2	3.00	4
Eva Lynch0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	1	4.33	2
Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	1	3.00	0
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	1	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/1
3	7	14/1
4	6	20/1
5	0	20/1
6	3	23/1
7	2	25/1
8	3	28/2
9	4	32/2
10	7	39/2
11	4	43/2
12	5	48/2
13	3	51/3
14	9	60/3
15	2	62/4
16	5	67/4
17	2	69/5
18	1	70/6
19	1	71/7
20	1	72/8

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