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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
29 Jul 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 64%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C de Lange (2)caught · Aasif Sheikh · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Karan KC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · B Sharki · H Dhami 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Sharki · b H Dhami | 12 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 52.17 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Karan KC0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Karan KC | 16 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 59.26 |
 Bas de Leedebowled · Lalit Rajbanshi1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 13 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Scott Edwards |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 67%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Ishan Pandey · b Dipendra Singh Airee |
| 57 |
| 91 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 62.64 |
| Noah Croesrun out · Kushal Bhurtel · Karan KC 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kushal Bhurtel | 70 | 93 | 3 | 0 | 75.27 |
|---|
| Logan van Beekcaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Karan KC | 27 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwecaught and bowled · Dipendra Singh Airee0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttlbw · Karan KC 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karan KC | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Kyle Kleinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 13 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 30 | 4 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
| H Dhami0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 6.83 | 1 | 2 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 4.33 | 4 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 4.83 | 4 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
1-0 (C de Lange (2), 0.1) · 2-30 (Max O'Dowd, 8.0) · 3-30 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 8.1) · 4-56 (Bas de Leede, 17.1) · 5-171 (Scott Edwards, 41.5) · 6-195 (Noah Croes, 45.2) · 7-199 (Roelof van der Merwe, 46.2) · 8-207 (Aryan Dutt, 47.3) · 9-225 (Logan van Beek, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 27/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 30/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 31/3 |
| 10 | 11 | 42/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 43/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 13 | 0 | 46/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 49/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 53/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 55/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 56/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 57/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 60/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 64/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 65/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 67/4 |
| 23 | 8 | 75/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 82/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 87/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 91/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 92/4 |
| 28 | 7 | 99/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 105/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 110/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 111/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 116/4 |
| 33 | 7 | 123/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 128/4 |
| 35 | 9 | 137/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 143/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 147/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 152/4 |
| 39 | 6 | 158/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 164/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 166/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 173/5 |
| 43 | 7 | 180/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 187/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 193/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 199/6 |
| 47 | 3 | 202/7 |
| 48 | 9 | 211/8 |
| 49 | 8 | 219/8 |
| 50 | 6 | 225/9 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
