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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier Group C · 2024 · Men
24 Aug 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Estonia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bulgaria started on 32%; Bulgaria batted first.
Bulgaria's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Estonia: 60% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeerak Chughtaicaught · Habib Khan · Bilal Masud 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Habib Khan · b Bilal Masud | 18 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 81.82 |
| D Nikolovcaught · M Vaik · S Gooch 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Vaik · b S Gooch | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Firas Hussainnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 40* | 40 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
| M Gogevcaught · Sahil Chauhan · Bilal Masud 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sahil Chauhan · b Bilal Masud | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Isa Zaroocaught · M Vaik · A Paul 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Vaik · b A Paul | 28 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 112.00 |
| Omar Rassol |
| stumped · M Vaik · b A Paul |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Danyal Rajabowled · D Robson 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b D Robson | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 91.67 |
|---|
| P Mishrarun out · A Paul · D Robson 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Paul | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Gagandeep Singh (3)run out · Bilal Masud, M Vaik · D Robson 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Bilal Masud, M Vaik | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Gooch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| D Robson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Habib Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| P Gheewala0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 1 |
| Bilal Masud0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| A Paul0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 4 | 0 |
1-19 (D Nikolov, 2.5) · 2-37 (Zeerak Chughtai, 6.2) · 3-42 (M Gogev, 7.0) · 4-85 (Isa Zaroo, 14.1) · 5-87 (Omar Rassol, 14.5) · 6-115 (Danyal Raja, 18.0) · 7-127 (P Mishra, 19.4) · 8-129 (Gagandeep Singh (3), 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 37/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 47/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 51/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 56/3 |
| 11 | 10 | 66/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 76/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 84/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 85/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 87/5 |
| 16 | 12 | 99/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 106/5 |
| 18 | 9 | 115/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 124/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 129/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.