Melbourne RenegadesversusSydney Sixers

27 Oct 2024 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 3 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs178/8 Sydney Sixers19.0 overs179/7 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 34%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 2% to 83% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 17% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.6: A Capsey to M Carmichael, M Carmichael out. Melbourne Renegades up from 46% to 68%.
2nd inns 16.4: A Capsey to CG Sippel, CG Sippel out. Melbourne Renegades up from 61% to 80%.
2nd inns 17.6: LCN Smith to SJ Bryce, four by SJ Bryce. Sydney Sixers up from 68% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades178/8 Sydney Sixers179/7

Innings 1